Buy SunPower… and Antacid: Analyst
SAN JOSE, Calif. (TheStreet) -- It's not every day that an upgrade on a stock comes with a secondary recommendation to purchase antacid, but such is the case with Pacific Crest Securities' upgrade of SunPower(SPWRA Quote) to outperform today.
Even more striking, the upgrade went directly from underperform -- itself just issued during the summer -- to outperform. That has sent shares of SunPower up close to 4% in Tuesday morning trading, a welcome change for a stock that has taken a beating in the past two weeks.
What was behind such a sudden and major change in the Pacific Crest analyst's view of Sunpower? It's an accounting scandal that the company has yet to resolve. You read that right. No wonder the upgrade also came with a buy rating on Tums.
SunPower revealed in mid-November that it had accounting issues related to both over-reporting and under-reporting of expenses that would likely require a restatement of second-quarter earnings. Immediately, the stock dove 20% and has yet to recover. Analyst downgrade followed analyst downgrade, and class-action lawsuit followed class-action lawsuit. The stock went from a Nov. 16 price of $27 down to $20 within a day. SunPower ended Tuesday up 4.6% at $21.62.
In the immediate wake of the freefall in SunPower shares there had been suggestions that the market might be overreacting and exacting too large a price on its stock.
"The sell side is notorious for reaction rather than proaction, and the downgrades started rolling in," said Mark Bachman, Pacific Crest analyst. "My upgrade is predicated on not waiting for the next catalyst, but to be in front of it," he said.
The SunPower management team is expected to hold a conference call mid-month to reveal the extent of the accounting issues, and Bachman is betting those findings will be a catalyst to a spike in the stock price. He does not expect the stock to reach his target of $29, but he is wagering on a recovery in the mid-20s range.
"I don't believe there is systematic fraud being perpetrated from the top down, but a lack of control that will be revealed. But looking backward, even at an earnings restatement, doesn't tell us the future," Bachman said.
The plummet in SunPower shares allowed Pacific Crest to revisit the underperform rating, in relation to the 2010 and 2011 outlook. Bachman's review of upcoming projects led to the conclusion that there is at least 1GW of projects that could make the SunPower 2011 story an interesting one, and a story which he cautiously advises investors to pursue.
"I've stuck my neck out pretty far on this one," he conceded, but he added that it is a well-educated guess and a good investment opportunity for investors with a high risk-reward profile.
http://www.thestreet.com/story/10635630/1/buy-sunpower-and-antacid-analyst.html
December 30th, 2009 - 06:07
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